Rwandan President Paul Kagame received a landslide victory within the presidential election held on July 15. With greater than 99% of the votes solid in favor of Kagame, this presidential election seems to be a repeat of the earlier three presidential elections, all of which achieved anticipated victories.
Kagame’s re-election comes towards the broader backdrop of many different necessary elections in Africa this yr. Comoros, Senegal, Chad and Mauritania have already held presidential elections. South Africa holds a parliamentary vote in Could.
Upcoming elections are in Algeria (September), Mozambique, Tunisia and Botswana (October), the breakaway Somaliland of Somaliland, Mauritius and Namibia (November); and Ghana, South Sudan, Guinea-Bissau and Guinea ( December).
With voting extremely concentrated throughout the nation, 2024 may function an indicator of the place democracy is heading in Africa and provide necessary classes.
two triumphs of democracy
Senegal and South Africa noticed two of probably the most surprising election outcomes to this point this yr. In March, Senegalese voters elected 44-year-old Bassirou Diomaye Faye because the nation’s youngest-ever president. Simply 10 days in the past, he was a political prisoner and Senegal’s democracy was on the brink.
In Could, South Africa’s African Nationwide Congress (ANC) misplaced its parliamentary majority for the primary time since 1994, when apartheid ended and free elections started. ) social gathering, its ideological counterpart, ranks second within the polls. These are untested waters for the nation’s political system and democracy.
The elections in Senegal and South Africa might be seen as two victories for democracy, provided that in each instances the ruling events with sturdy governing benefits suffered important losses. Nevertheless, additionally they illustrate the fragility of democracy, as neither is clean crusing.
Senegal goes by way of a serious political disaster within the months main as much as the election, with retiring President Macky Sall participating in political manipulation, probably to increase his time period or no less than affect the end result of the polls. In South Africa, after the vote, no less than 20 political events claimed fraud and demanded a recount. In the meantime, former President Zuma’s (MK) social gathering chief issued an ominous warning to not “create bother the place there isn’t any bother.”
Like Mali, Benin, Niger and even Kenya, democracy in Senegal and South Africa is commonly taken with no consideration. These instances present the constraints of the “two-change” take a look at utilized by American political scientist Huntington to evaluate the democratic stability of a regime – that’s, two consecutive political transitions with out resulting in the collapse of the democratic constitutional order.
They present that democratic complacency is a luxurious we can’t but afford. The identical conclusion might be drawn from the disputed outcomes of the Comoros and Chad votes.
Comoros President Azali Assoumani and Chadian President Mohamed Deby are each present presidents with army backgrounds, however have been re-elected as a result of alleged fraud. Violent demonstrations in Comoros over election outcomes reportedly left no less than one particular person lifeless and 25 injured. In Chad, no less than 12 individuals have been killed in pre- and post-election violence as a result of threats and intimidation.
Dangers of an Incumbent Marketing campaign
Whereas constructive traits might be noticed in some African elections, there are causes for concern elsewhere, notably in international locations the place incumbents are working. Issues can come up in high-stakes, winner-take-all races like presidential elections, particularly in so-called incumbent polls the place the sitting president can also be a candidate.
Given their private stakes within the course of, incumbents are more likely to exploit the strengths of the present president, akin to state sources and administrative equipment, to their very own benefit.
Because the Rwandan elections confirmed, this reduces the opposition’s prospects of victory. In precept, Kagame has by no means confronted opposition to his candidacy. Nevertheless, the tightly managed state equipment has at all times ensured an uneven taking part in area, working in his favor by eliminating the candidates who may pose the best problem to his rule.
For instance, forward of the July 15 vote, the Electoral Fee rejected the candidacy of Diane Rwigara – maybe Kagame’s most vocal critic immediately – citing irregularities in documentation. a type of. She was systematically intimidated in the course of the 2017 race and was ultimately banned from working as a result of an alleged autograph violation. In April, a Kigali courtroom additionally blocked the candidacy of Victoire Ingabire, one other fierce Kagame critic, citing previous denials of genocide and terrorism fees.
By the tip of the yr, there will likely be a number of different presidential races, and this unlucky actuality — or worse — could also be revealed. These will unfold towards the backdrop of extraordinarily fragile democracies in Tunisia, Guinea-Bissau, the breakaway area of Somaliland, South Sudan, Guinea and Algeria.
Coup d’état and conservative resurgence
It’s additionally necessary to notice that the 2024 electoral contest is being performed out in a broader regional context, and the dynamics are lower than very best. Extra particularly, army coups are resurgent and normalized in Africa, and rebels are apparently in no rush to return to their army camps.
Navy leaders in Mali and Burkina Faso have indefinitely frozen votes scheduled for February and July this yr, promising to postpone the dates however leaving little doubt they intend to be candidates when the vote comes.
In Guinea, Colonel Mamady Doumbouya, who got here to energy in a 2021 coup and just lately proclaimed himself a common, is a probable candidate within the December elections. Putschists are additionally taking up in Niger and Gabon, whereas the Democratic Republic of Congo’s authorities has just lately averted a coup.
Worrying developments in different elements of the world may even have a damaging affect on the continent. America, with its greater than 200-year custom of liberal democracy, dangers democratic backsliding because it seems set to re-elect Donald Trump, a convicted felon with brazenly authoritarian tendencies and an unapologetic “America First” agenda.
Labor events within the UK and France could have returned to energy and narrowly escaped being taken over by the far proper, however the rise of the far proper – and the menace it poses to liberal democracy – is an simple actuality in Europe.
For Africa, the mixture of those dynamics is each distressing and alarming. The (re)election of far-right, populist, inward-looking regimes within the West raises questions on their claims as a worldwide mannequin, particularly for international locations in Africa and elsewhere which have challenged Euro-American conceptions of democracy.
Help civil society and establishments
So whereas the electoral experiences of Senegal and South Africa encourage hope, regional and world realities and dynamics underscore why we should redouble our efforts to advertise and defend democracy.
Consolidated or not, democracy is not only a prize to be grabbed and sat on. Relatively, it have to be considered as a everlasting course of, continually nourished and catered to, despite the fact that on the floor it is probably not crucial.
This requires creativity, innovation, coordination, fixed revision of strategies and, above all, decided motion. For instance, the potential of non-incumbent polling to extend the probability of political alternative on the poll field can’t be overstated. Nevertheless, that is solely potential if safeguards akin to time period limits are constitutionally entrenched and revered. Subsequently, when these elements are ignored, a compelling incentive exists to supply the precise penalties.
Senegal and South Africa additionally provide classes for holding assaults on democracy and the values that underpin it.
The case of Senegal exhibits how the fearless resistance of a robust civil society, a resilient political opposition and a brave Constitutional Courtroom finally helped to set off beautiful leads to a fancy political and electoral context.
The South African case exhibits how knowledgeable residents and a robust and resilient political opposition can progressively scale back the ability of as soon as dominant events.
Sturdy and knowledgeable civil society, political events, sturdy establishments and political dialogue processes are clearly crucial situations for a sustainable democracy. Certainly, this is applicable not solely to Africa but in addition to different areas, for instance given the worrying traits rising in established Western democracies. They have to be strengthened and supported in any respect prices.
The views expressed on this article are the creator’s personal and don’t essentially mirror the editorial place of Al Jazeera.
