Intense negotiations are underway forward of the essential meeting elections in Maharashtra. Former chief minister Uddhav Thackeray met Rahul Gandhi, Malikajun Haq and Sharad Pawar in Delhi lately for discussions.
The opposition alliance MVA/INDIA, together with the Congress Occasion, Shiv Sena (Uddhav Bal Thackeray, or “UBT”) and the nationalist Congress Occasion (Sharad Pawar), goals to construct on the momentum of the final election and problem Mahayuthi/Nationwide Democratic Occasion The NDA authorities, comprising the Bharatiya Janata Occasion (BJP), Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde) and NCP (Ajit Pawar), capitalized on perceived anti-incumbency.
Within the 2024 basic elections, the Shiv Sena (UBT) is contesting in 21 seats, the Congress in 17 and the SP in 10. 9 (out of 43).
The discrepancy has raised considerations inside the Congress and the SP that the Shiv Sena (UBT) has been allotted extra seats than it ought to and that this shouldn’t be used as the idea for seat allocation within the meeting elections.
The Shiv Sena (UBT) is hoping to contest the most important seat once more within the meeting elections. The Congress celebration can be aiming to win essentially the most seats, arguing that each the Sena and the NCP have been weakened by divisions and not get pleasure from the identical degree of assist.
Within the 2019 elections, the Congress contested in 147 seats, the NCP (pre-partition) as a part of the UPA contested in 121 seats and the pre-partition Shiv Sena in alliance with the BJP contested in 126 seats.
The chief ministerial candidate is one other contentious problem. Uddhav Thackeray stated it was as much as the MVA management to determine whether or not he must be the alliance’s chief candidate.
Whereas the Shiv Sena (UBT) is advocating for a CM candidate, the Congress and SP want to carry the polls with out naming names and determine on the highest candidate primarily based on the variety of MLAs every celebration will get Place.
Listed here are the varied seat-sharing formulation into account:
1. One-third every
The components suggests that every one three events – Sena (UBT), NCP (SP) and Congress – will contest about 90-95 seats every, leaving the remaining seats to smaller events. This method was supported by comparable votes (16%-17%) within the 2019 Meeting polls.
2. Based mostly on work priorities
Within the 2019 elections, the Sena (pre-split) received 56 seats, the Congress (pre-split) received 54 seats and the Congress received 44 seats. The remaining 134 seats will probably be allotted primarily based on present energy, historic efficiency and up to date basic election traits.
Many MLAs from the Sena and the NCP are not in alliance with Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar. Given the essential significance of native candidates within the meeting elections, assist from the seats presently held by the Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar factions will probably be an necessary issue.
3. Based mostly on political celebration affect
The affect on seats is dependent upon whether or not the celebration is champion or runner-up. Since 2009, all events besides the BJP have seen their affect decline in Maharashtra. In 2019, the Congress had 113 seats, the Senate had 110 seats and the NCP had 101 seats, for a complete of 324 seats, whereas the Meeting had solely 288 seats.
Adjusting the 39 seats the place the Congress/NCP received and the Sena was the runner-up, and the 32 seats the place the Sena received and the Congress/NCP was the runner-up, the mixed affect of every celebration exceeds 253 seats, leaving 35 seats for additional distribution.
4. Occasion energy scanner
StrengthScanner recognized the Sena profitable 50 seats twice or thrice prior to now three elections, the Congress profitable 44 seats and the NCP profitable 43 seats. These events can compete for these 137 robust seats. Furthermore, these events are categorized as reasonable having received 167 seats within the final three polls. This ends in a complete of 304 seats, 16 greater than the 288 parliamentary seats, permitting for changes for double counting.
Regional issues are additionally essential. Congress is robust in Vidarbha, components of Mumbai and Marathwada; Sena is robust in Mumbai and Thane-Konkan area; NCP is robust in Western Maharashtra and Uttar Maharashtra Elements of Trabang had been robust.
The Indian group noticed a chance to capitalize on its robust Lok Sabha efficiency to safe victory. Ticket distribution stays a problem for the NDA. A well-coordinated seat-sharing technique can improve the MVA’s prospects, and all events want to remain united and give attention to the larger image.
(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier incarnation, he was a company and funding banker.)
Disclaimer: The above content material represents solely the writer’s private views
