Russia this week captured Vuhledar on the Donetsk-Zaporozhye border after an 18-month battle.
Vuldar sits on excessive floor close to a railway line that carries provides from Russian-occupied Crimea. Its occupation prevented Ukrainian forces from disrupting Russian provide traces.
It additionally offers Russia management of the adjoining H-15 freeway, which may assist Russia “eradicate the big Ukrainian salient within the western Donetsk area,” mentioned the Institute for Conflict Research, a assume tank in Washington.
Ukraine pushed again Russian positions within the Barkhane space by as a lot as 7.5 kilometers (5 miles) throughout final yr’s counteroffensive. That achieve might now be in jeopardy. After the lack of Vukhledar, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Alexander Silsky ordered the reinforcement of Donetsk’s defenses.
“Russia’s seize of Vukhledar won’t in itself basically change the operational state of affairs in western Donetsk Oblast, and Russian forces might have issue attaining their operational aims,” the ISW mentioned.
Russia has been working laborious to make concrete progress on its japanese entrance.
Since capturing Avdievka in February, it has superior 35 kilometers (22 miles) west towards Pokrovsk, however Silsky mentioned Ukraine’s counterinvasion of Kursk in August had prevented an advance towards Pokrovsk. 10 km (6 mi) advance from Vsk.
About 50 kilometers (30 miles) northeast of the Pokrovsk entrance, Russian forces have been firing in town of Chasifyar all summer time however have up to now captured solely the japanese outskirts.
Russian forces have been making an attempt unsuccessfully to seize Siversk, 40 kilometers (25 miles) northeast of Chasiv Yar.
On September 26, about 100 kilometers (62 miles) north of Siversk within the Russian metropolis of Kharkov, 50 armored autos and tanks launched a battalion-level assault within the path of Kupyansk. Ukraine repelled it, damaging or destroying 40 autos.
Though Ukraine’s defenses have largely held agency within the face of heavy Russian firepower, Russian forces have slowly superior on the entrance traces this yr, seizing greater than 800 sq. kilometers (310 miles) of territory.
However these tactical victories got here at an enormous value.
Ukraine’s armed forces mentioned on Sunday that 9,290 Russian troopers have been killed or wounded within the week of September 22-29, a mean of greater than 1,300 per day, which is typical for a lot of this yr. Ukraine mentioned Russia additionally misplaced 101 tanks and 254 armored preventing autos.
Al Jazeera was unable to confirm the demise toll.
“Russian forces should not have enough manpower and materials to proceed to accentuate their offensive indefinitely,” the ISW mentioned.
Growing Ukrainian protection trade
Ukraine says it has diminished Russia’s huge firepower benefit this yr and has steered it’s also placing strain on Russia’s manpower reserves.
“The ratio of artillery ammunition utilization on the battlefield up to now has decreased in comparison with the winter of 2024,” Ukrainian Deputy Protection Minister Ivan Kavrilyuk mentioned throughout a telethon on Tuesday. “The ratio then was 1 to eight . 1 to three at this time.”
That is in line with statements by Commander-in-Chief Alexander Silsky and President Volodymyr Zelensky final month that Russia fired 2.5 artillery shells into Ukraine.
No official has totally defined why this occurred.
Zelensky attributed this to Ukraine’s counter-invasion of Russia’s Kursk area on August 6.
There could also be different causes. Ukraine suffered a scarcity of artillery shells within the winter of 2023-2024 as U.S. Home Republicans delayed very important army help for six months. The help started flowing once more in Might, and U.S. President Joe Biden mentioned on September 26 that he would burn up the help by the top of the yr.
“I’ve directed the Division of Protection to distribute all remaining safety help funds which have been allotted to Ukraine on the finish of my time period,” he informed reporters throughout Zelensky’s go to to the White Home.
This consists of $5.5 billion from current inventories and $2.4 billion commissioned to supply new weapons underneath the Ukraine Safety Help Initiative (USAI).
Ukraine’s protection trade performed a job.
Kiev started producing its personal 155mm artillery shells domestically this yr, and final week Ukraine’s Strategic Business Minister Herman Smetanin mentioned Ukraine would produce extra artillery this yr than some other nation on the planet.
Ukraine’s protection industrial base tripled final yr and tripled within the first eight months of this yr, Prime Minister Denis Shmyhal informed a protection trade discussion board in Kiev on Wednesday.
A fourth consider balancing the artillery ratio stands out as the pace with which Ukraine can destroy Russian ammunition and artillery.
Ukraine has had appreciable success this yr utilizing domestically produced drones to destroy Russian logistics amenities and ammunition depots. Two weeks in the past, two amenities in Russia’s Tver and Krasnodar Krai have been attacked, destroying an estimated 32,000 tons of ammunition.
On Sunday, Ukraine’s Basic Workers claimed an assault on one other ammunition depot in Kotruban, Volgrad, though NASA satellite tv for pc photographs confirmed the explosion occurred exterior the power.
Ukrainian officers additionally hinted at indicators of a manpower scarcity in Russia.
Russian sailors have been noticed serving within the infantry, Navy spokesman Dmytro Pletenchuk mentioned throughout a telethon on Tuesday.
“This will solely point out critical degradation and a extreme scarcity of personnel,” he mentioned, “as a result of the specialists who’re a part of the crew require appreciable time to coach.”
Ukraine’s allies have introduced new army help packages, more and more taking the type of military-industrial cooperation quite than handouts.
Ukraine and Denmark on Sunday signed a protection cooperation settlement that introduces a brand new financing mannequin. Denmark will contribute 175 million euros ($190 million) to Ukraine’s home arms trade and can entice one other 400 million euros ($440 million) from income from frozen Russian state belongings. The funds shall be used to develop Ukrainian assault drones, anti-tank mines and missiles.
Franco-German protection group KNDS introduced on Tuesday that it has opened a subsidiary in Kiev to restore and keep Leopard tanks, Cesar weapons, Gepard weapons, PzH 2000 armored howitzers and different techniques.
Home upkeep is designed to cut back turnaround time and improve the variety of autos obtainable for fight operations. The corporate will even collectively produce 155mm artillery items with Ukrainian trade.
Lastly, the Netherlands delivered the primary batch of eight F-16s to Ukraine on Saturday, and Ukraine additionally acquired six plane from Denmark, one in every of which was misplaced in fight. Ukraine says it wants at the least 130 plane.
Ukraine is attracting extra funding from Western companions.
Protection Minister Rustem Umerov mentioned Russia has spent $4 billion on purchases from the protection trade this yr. Prime Minister Shmihal mentioned that the home arms procurement finances will improve to US$7 billion subsequent yr.
One space the place Ukraine has a transparent benefit over Russia by way of manufacturing and tactical experience is in the usage of unmanned techniques. Zelensky mentioned this week that Ukraine has produced 1.5 million drones of varied sorts this yr and goals to supply 2 million, whereas Russia plans to supply 1.4 million. He mentioned Ukraine has the capability to supply 4 million drones per yr.
Ukraine has additionally used small drones to partially compensate for its lack of artillery, precisely delivering grenades and different small munitions to Russian positions. On Wednesday, the 2nd Mechanized Battalion of the Presidential Brigade launched the TG-90, a 2-kilogram heavy bomb dropped by a drone inside a constructing.
However Russia can be relentlessly investing in its personal protection industrial base.
On Tuesday, the Duma acquired a draft federal finances for 2025, which allocates 13.5 trillion rubles ($141.7 billion) for protection and one other 3.5 trillion rubles ($36.8 billion) for nationwide safety, which means that 41% of the Russian finances will for protection and safety over the following yr. Lower than $70 billion was spent on well being, schooling and different social applications.
Some observers imagine that the huge assets Russia has allotted to the warfare in Ukraine don’t look like translating into progress on the bottom.
