Because the U.S. presidential election approaches, the competitors to draw voters is intensifying. Among the many totally different constituencies fought over by Democrats and Republicans, one stands out: the Muslim group.
Though Muslims make up about 1% of the U.S. inhabitants, they’re an necessary voting bloc as a result of they’re concentrated in swing states that are likely to win elections by slim margins.
This election cycle, the Muslim group seems extra united than ever on one political challenge: the warfare in Gaza. Any candidate hoping to win over the help of enormous numbers of Muslim voters should meet group calls for for an finish to Palestinian bloodshed.
That is in keeping with a brand new research launched by the Institute for Social Coverage and Understanding (ISPU) in partnership with Emgage and Change Analysis. It’s based mostly on a survey carried out in late June and early July, specializing in how Muslims in three battleground states – Georgia, Pennsylvania and Michigan – plan to vote within the 2024 presidential election.
We discovered that President Joe Biden’s dealing with of the Gaza warfare has turned Muslims, one among his greatest supporters in 2020, into his most strident critics.
In 2020, about 65% of Muslim voters in these states voted for Biden. That help was essential to his electoral victory, as he narrowly received key swing states. He received Georgia (the place greater than 61,000 Muslims voted) by simply 12,000 votes and Pennsylvania (the place 125,000 Muslims voted) by 81,000 votes.
By comparability, solely 12% of respondents to a survey carried out earlier than Biden dropped out of the presidential race mentioned they might vote for him, marking a pointy drop in help not seen in different research teams. Whereas this affected the presidential marketing campaign, it additionally mirrored a broader disillusionment with the institution of the Democratic Social gathering.
The Gaza warfare united Muslim voters in a approach that no different challenge has in latest reminiscence. In line with the 2020 American Muslim Ballot carried out by ISPU, well being care (19%), the financial system (14%) and social justice (13%) are the highest voting points for Muslim voters.
In comparison with 2024: Throughout events, the highest precedence for Muslim voters in Georgia, Pennsylvania and Michigan is the warfare in Gaza (61%), adopted by preserving the US away from international wars (22%).
Lowering army help to Israel additionally enjoys help among the many overwhelming majority of Muslim voters in our research, who overwhelmingly see this coverage as a cause to vote for the candidate, no matter partisan sentiment. Whereas abroad wars could seem far faraway from the day by day issues of American Muslim voters, many see the US’ position in offering unconditional help and diplomatic cowl to Israel as complicit within the ongoing oppression of the Palestinians.
The significance of the Gaza warfare to Muslim voters had been clear for months earlier than we carried out our survey. The Muslim group has performed a number one position within the Uncommitted Nation motion, which urges Democratic voters to vote “uncommitted” of their respective states’ presidential primaries. The initiative efficiently attracted greater than 700,000 Democrats to take action, explicitly demanding that the Biden administration change its tone and coverage towards Israel and Palestine.
The dramatic migration of Muslims away from Biden, nevertheless, will not be a wholesale leap to the opposite facet of the aisle. In Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania, Muslim help for Trump elevated from 18% in 2020 to 22% in 2024.
The overwhelming majority of Biden’s former Muslim supporters are switching to a 3rd get together or are undecided. Our analysis discovered that just about one-third of Muslim voters both voted for a third-party candidate (27%) or wrote a few candidate (3%). About 17% of Muslims mentioned they have been undecided on a candidate, in contrast with 6% of the final inhabitants.
This implies there’s nonetheless room and time for candidates to win over this necessary constituency. They appear to be engaged on it.
Not solely is Biden dropping out of the race, Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris has additionally mentioned she is going to distance herself from Biden’s staunch help for Israel’s Gaza warfare. In July, the vp didn’t attend Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s deal with to Congress, saying she wouldn’t stay silent in regards to the struggling in Gaza and making clear her help for a ceasefire.
In August, she chosen Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, who was extensively seen as extra sympathetic to the Palestinian trigger than shortlisted Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, as her operating mate. This yr, Walz praised Minnesota’s uncommitted voters, calling them “civic engaged” and saying, “This challenge is a humanitarian disaster. They’ve each proper to be heard.
Whereas Muslims are cautiously optimistic at finest, that hope was dashed final week when the Harris marketing campaign refused to permit Palestinian Individuals to talk on the Democratic Nationwide Conference.
Third-party candidates Jill Stein and Cornel West have each been outspoken of their help of the individuals of Gaza. West selected Melina Abdullah, a black Muslim girl, as his operating mate. Stein selected Muslim activist and scholar Rudolf “Butch” Weil.
Even Republican candidate Donald Trump’s marketing campaign is reaching out to Arab-American voters — shocking contemplating the anti-Muslim rhetoric he used throughout his 2016 marketing campaign. have been working laborious to win over Arab voters in swing states. Trump’s youngest daughter, Tiffany, is married to the son of Lebanese-American businessman Massad Bouulous, who has been making an attempt to steer Michigan to win over the present administration’s failed insurance policies in Gaza. of Arabs voted for the previous president.
The mobilization of the Muslim group on the Palestinian challenge has come at a heavy value to many. The Council on American-Islamic Relations reviews an unprecedented surge in bias incidents: In 2023, reviews of Islamophobia elevated by 56%. Palestinian scholar was shot. Hundreds of individuals — lots of them Muslim college students — have been arrested at campus protests, and plenty of have been threatened with expulsion or confronted legal prices for participating in pro-Palestinian actions at schools and universities throughout the US.
But even with the implications of taking a public stance on Palestine, Muslim voters seem undeterred this time. Solidarity with the individuals of Gaza has grow to be crucial challenge for American Muslim voters, and no candidate can afford to disregard this group.
The views expressed on this article are the writer’s personal and don’t essentially mirror the editorial place of Al Jazeera.
