Miami Dolphins large receiver Tyreek Hill (10) leaps to catch the ball in entrance of Buffalo Payments security Taylor Rapp (20) through the second half of an NFL soccer recreation on January 7, 2024 in Miami Gardens. The Buffalo Payments have gained 4 straight video games towards the Miami Dolphins and can attempt to make it 5 in a row in Week 2 on Thursday Night time Soccer. The road has since risen to +2.5 at many sportsbooks.
In Week 18 final 12 months, the Miami Warmth might have defeated the Payments to win the staff’s first division title because the 2008 season, however finally misplaced 21-14.
Odds and Developments
The Miami Warmth began the essential early-season divisional battle at -1 and have been the slight favourite. However the line has turned in favor of the Dolphins, who are actually a consensus 2.5-point favourite. Three of the previous 5 video games have been determined by subject targets or much less, together with the Miami Warmth’s final win, a 21-19 victory in September 2022.
The Dolphins appeal to extra punters to point-spread bets on extra ball carriers (68%) than the Payments (32%). A rising variety of bettors are backing the Miami Warmth to win, with 70% of bets and 66% of moneyline bets on the Dolphins.
This manner, the Payments would win 30% of the cash and 34% of the moneyline bets.
BetRivers discovered a better share of cash (76%) and tickets (70%) in Miami spreads. The e book’s moneyline numbers additionally favor the Dolphins, with 56 p.c of the percentages and 52 p.c of tickets going to Miami.
The general public is hoping for a 66% win charge and 75% of the votes in favor of this high-scoring contest.
Betting with the general public was a preferred strategy to go early within the season final 12 months. The Public went 13-3 ATS in Week 1 and had a profitable document in 5 of the primary seven weeks. The Public document final week was 5-7-1 on Sunday.
Prop choice
— Tyreek Hill touchdowns anytime (DraftKings -120): Hill began final season properly, with 4 touchdowns within the first three video games and at the very least one in seven of the primary eight video games. With Raheem Mostert out and Devon Achane injured, the percentages of Hill moving into the tip zone are fairly excessive. He had one landing in two video games towards the Payments final season.
–Hill over 6.5 catches (-138 on FanDuel): Regardless of the offense getting off to a sluggish begin, he had seven catches final week. With the staff’s prime operating again out or injured, Miami is certain to throw extra balls, which might imply extra targets for Hill. Final season he scored three factors towards the Payments on October 1 and 7 factors within the common season finale.
key statistics
Josh Allen had nice success towards the Dolphins, profitable 11 of 12 video games, averaging over 35 factors per recreation, and producing over 400 yards of offense in every recreation. His 36 landing passes towards the Dolphins (since 2018) are essentially the most by a quarterback within the league towards a single opponent.
Information
Not solely has Payments quarterback Josh Allen been dominant for the Dolphins because the 2018 draft, but when the MVP have been awarded solely based mostly on video games towards the Dolphins, Allen would have a roomful of hardbodies.
When the Payments confronted the Dolphins at house in Week 4 of final season, Allen’s cross completion charge was as excessive as 84%, advancing 320 yards and 4 touchdowns. For good measure, he scored one other landing on the bottom. In Week 18, with the division title on the road, Allen went 30-38 with 359 yards and two touchdowns.
If he hadn’t thrown two interceptions, one in all which resulted in a landing for Miami, the sport would not have been as shut because the rating (21-14).
The Payments’ highway may very well be slightly difficult this week, although. Because the Payments traded Stefon Diggs to Houston this offseason, Allen now not has a official No. 1 receiver. He accomplished 78 p.c of his passes final week for 232 yards and two touchdowns. In his 18 receptions, Allen caught the ball with 9 totally different receivers.
Akan rushed for 101 yards and two scores in Week 4 final season. If he cannot play, the operating recreation should still be high quality. In Week 18 final season, Jeff Wilson Jr. rushed for 45 yards on 9 carries.
harm report
Mostert is out with a chest harm, whereas Akan missed Monday and Tuesday’s apply with an ankle harm. His official standing, together with that of large receivers Malik Washington, LB Jaelan Philips, CB Jalen Ramsey and OT Liam Eichenberg, is questionable. Achane was thought of a match-time determination.
Buffalo Payments DE Javon Solomon is listed as questionable (slash). However compatriots Davuan Smoot (toe) and CB Talon Jackson (forearm) have each been dominated out.
prophecy
Miami’s offense can maintain its personal towards Buffalo’s protection. The Dolphins could not cease Allen final 12 months, however they did sack him 5 occasions and intercept him twice. Allen had seven interceptions towards Miami, his most with a staff.
Whether or not this recreation is shut will rely on whether or not the Dolphins can overcome Allen’s previous dominance. The Payments offense is not the powerhouse it was in years previous. If Miami performs its “A” recreation, the Dolphins can finish their dropping streak on this recreation.
Prediction: Payments 28, Dolphins 31
—Travis Pulver, Discipline Degree Media
